ISLAND · Wildfire drought task · clusters

Original and Discovered Clusters

Set up two zones and run the fire, or replay a designed example. After each run the page places the student in the researchers' original grouping (exact) and estimates their discovered cluster (live), explains the estimate, and flags where either reading misleads.

Background reading

Model setup

Zone 1
Zone 2

This panel stands in for the model's Setup and spark tools. The page does not simulate fire spread; it codes and traces the setups. For the real model, use the live monitor.

Researchers' codes so far

level 2 —level 3 —sim_group 0

N nothing differs · O only drought differs · I one other setting · M several. Upper case = one spark in each zone. = identical rerun · * zones same, wind/sparks changed · + same comparison, tweaked. C = O then +.

Two sides of the coin: the original grouping and the discovered clusters

Original · researchers' streak coding (exact)
No engagement
sim_group
0
EC_group
0 · no data
Coaching comes from the rule case (Hazbot round 1).
Discovered · LLM clusters (live estimate)
Why this cluster, and how far to trust it

The original side is computed exactly from the runs. The discovered side is a logistic model on rule-computed features that predicts the Sonnet-labelled cluster: 86% accurate on whole sessions (cross-validated), 70% after 3 runs. BKT, above, tracks skill; both sides here name a pattern of behaviour.

Run log

#Zone 1 | Zone 2SparksWindCodeFair testP(L) after