ISLAND · Wildfire drought task · real run logs

Wildfire Log Replays

Replay a real student's runs one at a time and watch the detectors respond: the researchers' codes, BKT mastery, a live cluster estimate, and the feedback a coach would suggest at each moment.

Background reading

Choose a student

Load the replay file drought-runs.json (made by scripts/export_replay.py; in data/replay/ on the laptop and the mini). It is read in this browser only and never uploaded.

Researchers' codes so far

level 2 —level 3 —sim_group 0

N nothing differs · O only drought differs · I one other setting · M several. Upper case = one spark per zone. = identical rerun · * zones same, wind/sparks changed · + same comparison, tweaked.

Recorded labels and outcome

Shown when the replay reaches the last run, so the live estimates can be judged first.

No student loaded
run 0 of 0

BKT: skill mastery right now

Attempts
0
identical reruns not counted
Fair-test mastery
13%
P(L), mastered at 95%
Next run is a fair test
13%
BKT prediction
Trajectory
No attempts
 

Two sides of the coin: the original grouping and the discovered clusters

Original · researchers' streak coding (exact)
No engagement
sim_group
0
EC_group
0 · no data
Coaching comes from the rule case (Hazbot round 1).
Discovered · LLM clusters (live estimate)
Why this cluster, and how far to trust it

The original side is computed exactly from the runs. The discovered side is a logistic model on rule-computed features that predicts the Sonnet-labelled cluster: 86% accurate on whole sessions (cross-validated), 70% after 3 runs. BKT, above, tracks skill; both sides here name a pattern of behaviour.

Suggested feedback, as it would be timed

Timing rules: a new rule case shows its round-1 line (original side, dark edge); the same case on a second attempt shows the discovered cluster's coaching focus (round 2, ember edge); BKT adds an early-alert nudge and a mastery affirmation (green edge). Round-1 lines are study-written Hazbot-style templates.

Mastery by skill

Run log

#Zone 1 | Zone 2SparksWindCodeFair testP(L) after